2007 NFL Line Moves
Al O’Donnell has covered the fact that following line moves of three or more points in the NFL is a losing proposition in the long run.
Several readers have asked whether they should follow smaller line moves. In general, where the line moves three points or more it is as a result of injury news. When a quarterback breaks his leg in training and an inexperienced replacement comes in, the line will move as much as seven points. The smaller moves will often be in reaction to injuries of a couple of starters or they may be in response to the volume of betting action or bets from particularly shrewd investors.
Using the data only from last season, the following patterns can be seen:
| Line moves - 2006/7 season | ||
|---|---|---|
| Successful | Not successful | |
| 1 point | 19 | 15 |
| 1.5 points | 6 | 7 |
| 2 points | 0 | 6 |
However you have to realise this is a very small sample size and not statistically significant. That said, I think it backs up Al’s assertion that generally the bigger the line move, the more you should be inclined to better the other way.
Under/over line moves are also worth looking at. In the 2006/7 season 95 of the 256 games played saw a line move down from the opening total, while 98 games moved up. The greatest move was 6 points (San Francisco at Seattle) and only 19 games moved three points or more.
Of the 95 times the line moved down, those who followed the move and bet at the closing total won 41 games and lost in 52 with two pushes. When the line moved up, those who bet at the closing line and followed the move won 48 times, lost 49 times and pushed three times.
Again there is not enough information here to say anything with any level of statistical certainty but there is certainly no clear indication that following the line moves in over/under betting is profitable to the average bettor.
