2007 NFL Playoff Betting
Generally speaking, the sportsbooks hate the playoffs because they tend to lose back quite a bit of their profits in these games. And traditionally the Super Bowl is the biggest losing day of the year because over the years slightly more favorites have covered the point spread than have failed and because so many more people bet the game.
Looking through the last three years’ playoff statistics there is little of encouragement to bettors. The underdogs have a tiny edge but of so little significance as to be irrelevant.
What the statistics best prove about the playoffs is that it is hard to gain an edge when there are so few games and they are under such a media spotlight. In a regular week you can have 16 games and, inevitably, some of them will be of less interest to the media than others. The ones that are not in the spotlight tend to be where the betting value is for those prepared to put the work and research in. By the time you get to the playoffs every bet of information about every player is already out there and the linesmakers can make a very solid number. As a result I barely have a wager around the playoffs and several smart bettors I know pack up at the end of the regular season and switch their attention to college hoops or the forthcoming baseball season, where they know that their superior information will allow them to beat the sportsbook.
