2007 NFL Public teams
Experienced bettors generally have an idea of who the ‘public’ teams are. By this, I mean the teams loved by the inexperienced ‘square’ bettors who are so vital to sportsbooks’ profitability. The vast majority of the money bet on the NFL is ‘square’ action and so the linesmakers pay huge attention to where the average Joe is going to invest their cash.
What few bettors – even those who make a living from it – have available is accurate data on who the public teams are and the extent to which the wagering action was skewed towards them. Using data supplied to me by one of the biggest offshore sportsbooks (who handled in excess of $2 billion of NFL wagers last season, so it should be a statistically sound sample) I have compiled what I believe to be the most accurate table of last year’s public teams:
2006/7 NFL Season - Who were the public teams?
| Total season | First half | Second half | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDIANAPOLIS | 67.6 | PHILADELPHIA | 71.3 | INDIANAPOLIS | 74.1 |
| CHICAGO | 66.0 | CHICAGO | 69.0 | KANSAS CITY | 66.4 |
| NEW ENGLAND | 65.8 | SAN DIEGO | 66.1 | NEW ENGLAND | 65.8 |
| SAN DIEGO | 64.8 | NEW ENGLAND | 65.8 | SAN DIEGO | 63.4 |
| CINCINNATI | 62.7 | CINCINNATI | 65.0 | CHICAGO | 63.0 |
| PHILADELPHIA | 60.8 | CAROLINA | 63.5 | PITTSBURGH | 62.5 |
| PITTSBURGH | 59.5 | DALLAS | 61.1 | CINCINNATI | 60.4 |
| DALLAS | 58.8 | INDIANAPOLIS | 61.1 | NEW YORK GIANTS | 59.9 |
| CAROLINA | 58.3 | ATLANTA | 57.4 | ATLANTA | 59.1 |
| ATLANTA | 58.3 | DENVER | 57.1 | DALLAS | 56.5 |
| KANSAS CITY | 58.3 | PITTSBURGH | 56.5 | SEATTLE | 56.1 |
| NEW YORK GIANTS | 54.8 | BALTIMORE | 53.5 | NEW YORK JETS | 54.8 |
| SEATTLE | 54.5 | SEATTLE | 52.9 | NEW ORLEANS | 53.8 |
| BALTIMORE | 53.4 | MIAMI | 51.1 | BALTIMORE | 53.3 |
| DENVER | 53.3 | ST. LOUIS | 50.8 | ST. LOUIS | 53.3 |
| ST. LOUIS | 52.0 | KANSAS CITY | 50.1 | CAROLINA | 53.1 |
| NEW YORK JETS | 51.1 | NEW YORK GIANTS | 49.6 | PHILADELPHIA | 50.4 |
| NEW ORLEANS | 50.5 | WASHINGTON | 48.6 | DENVER | 49.5 |
| MIAMI | 48.3 | JACKSONVILLE | 48.3 | JACKSONVILLE | 47.4 |
| JACKSONVILLE | 47.8 | NEW YORK JETS | 47.5 | SAN FRANCISCO | 46.0 |
| MINNESOTA | 45.0 | NEW ORLEANS | 47.3 | MIAMI | 45.4 |
| GREEN BAY | 43.4 | MINNESOTA | 45.5 | MINNESOTA | 44.5 |
| TENNESSEE | 41.8 | ARIZONA | 45.0 | GREEN BAY | 44.0 |
| ARIZONA | 41.8 | TENNESSEE | 44.0 | TENNESSEE | 39.6 |
| SAN FRANCISCO | 38.4 | GREEN BAY | 42.8 | HOUSTON | 38.6 |
| WASHINGTON | 38.4 | CLEVELAND | 37.8 | ARIZONA | 38.5 |
| BUFFALO | 36.4 | BUFFALO | 37.0 | DETROIT | 36.9 |
| DETROIT | 36.3 | DETROIT | 35.6 | BUFFALO | 35.8 |
| CLEVELAND | 34.7 | TAMPA BAY | 34.5 | OAKLAND | 34.4 |
| TAMPA BAY | 34.3 | SAN FRANCISCO | 30.8 | TAMPA BAY | 34.1 |
| HOUSTON | 33.5 | HOUSTON | 28.4 | CLEVELAND | 31.6 |
| OAKLAND | 29.8 | OAKLAND | 25.3 | WASHINGTON | 28.1 |
From this table you can see that the Colts (67.6) were the biggest ‘public’ team through the whole NFL season, followed by the Bears (66.0) and the Patriots (65.8). The least popular teams with the betting public were the Raiders (29.8), followed by the Texans (33.5) and the Bucs (34.3). The data can essentially be measured as a skew away from a normal distribution of 50%; in other words, if the point spread were perfect all the time and captured an equal number of bettors on either side, every team would show a 50.0 score. However because of biases in favour of certain teams, some teams (the Colts, Bears and Pats) are overbet while some are underbet.
Generally speaking, I try and avoid betting on the big public teams on the point spread because they are usually appalling value. Linesmakers will shade a line by up to three points if there is a big public team playing against an unloved side and we all know that a field goal is a big margin to give up in the NFL.
For those looking for information for the coming season from this, the information on the second half of the season ‘public’ teams should prove useful. This is based on the last eight games played by each side in the 2006/7 season and shows that the Colts (74.1), Chiefs (66.4) and Patriots (65.8) were the most popular teams with the average gambler.
This bias is almost always carried forward into the following season, unless there has been enormous personnel changes for a side or an amazing draft, so all teams ranked below the Eagles should offer value on the point spread to bettors, all other factors being equal.
